We are about six months away before anyone gets too excited about Monona’s mayoral race, but it’s not too late to speculate who might throw their hat in the ring. Today we’ll look at incumbent, Robb Kahl.

We assume Kahl will run again. He’s played some chips this past year, making plays to save Maywood School,  getting stop signs put in on Winnequah, and keeping chickens out of Monona. I suspected that the ‘save Maywood’ initiative would win him points. I still believe that, but there’s some interesting things that could come into to play by election day. Much of this will rely on the school district voters and the administration.

The district will likely need to get a referendum for next  year to avoid more nasty budget cutting. It would probably have to happen in November so the district can plan for 2011-12. And this all matters why? Because Maywood’s future may hinge on the district getting a referendum passed. If the district is looking at a huge deficit again, keeping Maywood open may be impossible.

And even if the referendum passes, there’s no promise that Maywood will stay open. The charter school idea hasn’t gotten much traction, and even with more money, keeping Maywood open may not be an option if more students aren’t going to be housed in Winnequah. A closed Maywood is a failure for Kahl.

Beyond the Maywood issue, there are a few things that make us wonder if Kahl could be vulnerable.

Kahl has probably gotten more attention for getting stop signs on Winnequah – including one right in front of his house. As inconsequential as that sounds, there’s been quite a bit of derision about the signs – as if he had them put up because of his new home. I say hogwash (okay, I never say ‘hogwash’, but it seemed like the thing to write). But people looking for reasons to not the like the mayor have found them.

Other items working against Kahl – construction. People will have endured a full year of Monona Drive ripped up, and while the southern section will be complete, the memories may linger. Will they blame Kahl?

We can’t ignore anti-incumbency either. If a formidable opponent is found to oppose Kahl, a simple ‘vote for the other guy’ might hurt him a lot. Combine that with a poor economy for many – and you could have some seriously agitated voters looking for change.

People may think I’m harping on small points, but I’m purposely looking for chinks in the armor of the mayor.

But don’t think he’s in a weak position. He’s in the driver’s seat – no matter who he runs against. Many feel he has shown leadership in the save Maywood fight, he’ll have a good looking Monona Drive to show off. He doesn’t make gaffes. And the introduction of stop signs on Winnequah have thrilled many.

I think – for the most part – that Kahl’s future really depends on if anyone significant will run against him. We’ll look at some of those options later.